In Green Bay, Wisconsin, indications strongly suggest that the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Jones are on track to continue their partnership for an eighth season. However, AJ Dillon, who has been Jones’ teammate for the past four years, faces an uncertain future. This is the first installment of a series focusing on the outlook for Green Bay’s 12 unrestricted free agents, with Dillon being the subject.
Here are the reasons why it would be beneficial for the Packers to keep AJ Dillon on their roster.
No, Dillon didn’t manage to compensate fully for Jones’ prolonged absences. And while he didn’t replicate the style of Derrick Henry, he proved to be a valuable contributor over the past three seasons. Several factors work in Dillon’s favor. Firstly, he has shown remarkable durability, rarely missing games due to injury. Despite dealing with COVID during his rookie year in 2020, he played in every game in 2021 and 2022, as well as the first 13 games of 2023, totaling a streak of 51 consecutive regular-season appearances before a broken thumb sidelined him for one game. He then missed Week 18 and two playoff games due to a stinger injury.
Secondly, Dillon has demonstrated effectiveness on the field. Pro Football Reference utilizes a metric known as “Success Rate,” which aligns with Green Bay’s grading system for wins and losses. Any run that achieves 40 percent of the yards on first down, more than half of the remaining yards on second down, and all the remaining yards on third or fourth down is considered successful.
Among 50 running backs with at least 275 carries from 2021 to 2023, Dillon boasted the highest success rate in the NFL, standing at 55.9 percent. Even in a challenging 2023 season, his success rate of 50.0 percent ranked 10th out of 41 running backs with a minimum of 110 carries.
Lastly, Dillon is a versatile player. He excels not only in gaining tough yards but also in receiving, as evidenced by his reception rates of 34 out of 37 targets in 2021 and 22 out of 28 targets in 2023. Additionally, he contributes effectively in pass protection. Retaining Dillon would provide the Packers with a dependable complementary back, freeing up their premium draft picks for other positions.
Coach Matt LaFleur emphasized Dillon’s value at the end of the season, stating, “AJ has been an invaluable member of our team. In this league, you need multiple backs due to the physical demands they face. His importance becomes more evident as the season progresses each year. I would love to see him return to our team.”
Coach Matt LaFleur served as the offensive coordinator for the Titans in 2018, which coincided with Henry’s initial 1,000-yard season. Comparisons between Henry (measuring 6-foot-3, 247 pounds; running the 40-yard dash in 4.54 seconds; with an 8.78 Relative Athletic Score) and Dillon (measuring 6-foot, 247 pounds; running the 40-yard dash in 4.53 seconds; with a 9.18 Relative Athletic Score) were quite straightforward.
In 2020, playing behind Jones and Jamaal Williams, Dillon maintained an impressive average of 5.3 yards per carry. His breakthrough opportunity came against the Titans, where he carried the ball 21 times for 124 yards and two touchdowns, marking the only 100-yard game of his career thus far. Moving into 2021, Dillon rushed for a total of 803 yards, averaging 4.3 yards per carry. Notably, he led the league with a 61.0 percent success rate and accumulated 1,116 yards from scrimmage. The following year, in 2022, he recorded 770 rushing yards with an average of 4.1 yards per carry. His success rate ranked fifth at 56.5 percent, resulting in a total of 976 yards. However, in 2023, his performance declined as he rushed for 613 yards with a meager average of 3.4 yards per carry. His success rate dropped further to 50.0 percent, with a total of 836 yards.
Despite being a physical specimen, Dillon’s ability to break free from tackles and make significant gains was limited. In 2023, among 49 running backs with at least 100 carries, Dillon ranked 37th with 2.69 yards after contact, according to Pro Football Focus, and 47th with a missed-tackle rate of 6.7 percent, according to Sports Info Solutions.
The final decision or conclusion.
Similar to their approach with other key free agents, the Packers held discussions with Dillon’s representatives during the Scouting Combine. Given his status as an early draft pick and his prime playing years, Dillon is expected to garner significant interest if he becomes a free agent.
During discussions at the Combine, there was speculation that the Dallas Cowboys could be particularly interested in Dillon. This interest arises as their primary running back, Tony Pollard, is set to enter free agency. Therefore, the Cowboys might be seeking either a new primary back or a robust complement to Pollard’s explosive style. It’s intriguing to consider the possibility of Dillon thriving under Coach Mike McCarthy, especially after McCarthy faced criticism for underutilizing Jones. Ideally for the Packers, Dillon remains unsigned during the initial stages of free agency and becomes available after the draft, providing Green Bay with a potential option if they are unable to acquire one of their targeted running backs.