Boston Red Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito is scheduled to undergo surgery on his right elbow on Tuesday afternoon, according to reports from Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe and Sean McAdam of MassLive.
The exact type of surgery, whether it be a full Tommy John procedure or a brace intervention, remains uncertain. However, it is clear that he will face an extended absence from the game regardless of the chosen procedure.
Last week, it was disclosed that Giolito has a partial tear in the ulnar collateral ligament in his right arm, along with a strain of his flexor tendon. A definitive decision on the course of action had not been reached at that time, prompting the team to seek a second opinion for Giolito.
After further evaluation, it appears that surgery will indeed be necessary for him. Giolito had previously undergone Tommy John surgery as a prospect in 2012.
The specifics of the procedure will be determined during the operation itself, as the medical team will assess the extent of damage in his elbow and make decisions accordingly.
Regardless of the chosen approach, Giolito is expected to miss the entire 2024 season. While a brace procedure offers a newer alternative to Tommy John surgery with potentially shorter recovery times, rehabilitation periods still typically last around a year.
This setback is devastating for both Giolito and the Red Sox. He had impressive performances from 2019 to 2021 with the White Sox, boasting a 3.47 earned run average during that period. Although he struggled in 2022 with an ERA of 4.90, he appeared to be making a comeback in the first half of the following year.
Approaching free agency, Giolito had a promising 3.79 ERA through 21 starts. He seemed to be on track to become one of the top free agents of the 2023-24 offseason. However, after being traded to the Angels, his performance declined once again. He registered a 6.89 ERA in six starts for the Halos, leading to his placement on waivers as the team fell out of contention.
The Guardians claimed Giolito, but his performance with the team resulted in a disappointing 7.04 ERA over six starts.
As recently as last summer, Giolito appeared to be on track for a lucrative nine-figure contract. However, he entered free agency with little momentum and ultimately settled for a two-year deal with the Red Sox worth $38.5 million, including an opt-out clause for better results in 2024.
Unfortunately, Giolito’s injury means he will remain with the Red Sox through 2025. Despite initially aiming to strengthen their rotation in the offseason, the Red Sox made relatively few moves in that regard. While they acquired Giolito, they also traded Chris Sale to Atlanta for Vaughn Grissom, resulting in a somewhat neutral effect on the rotation depending on the perspective of the Sale/Giolito swap.
With Giolito facing an extended absence, the rotation remains largely unchanged from the previous year, minus Sale. It’s possible that improvements from existing options such as Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, or Garrett Whitlock could partially offset this loss. Nevertheless, it’s far from ideal for the team’s major offseason acquisition to miss the entire season.
The team has been working with a reduced budget compared to previous years. Club president Sam Kennedy mentioned last month that the new chief baseball officer, Craig Breslow, is working within certain payroll limits.
RosterResource estimates this year’s payroll to be $180 million, while data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts indicates that the club’s payroll has previously reached as high as $236 million. It seems that the club is not optimistic about its chances of competing in the competitive American League East and is therefore reluctant to invest heavily in pursuing a narrow chance at contention.
Despite big-name free agents like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery still being available, the Red Sox have been linked to the latter without any imminent deals, partly due to apparent budgetary constraints. If the team is interested in more cost-effective options for adding innings, players such as Michael Lorenzen, Jake Odorizzi, and Noah Syndergaard remain unsigned.
As for Giolito, he will be focusing on his rehabilitation for the foreseeable future. He will turn 30 in July and will be 31 when his contract with the Red Sox expires, allowing him to return to the open market after the 2025 season.