The Toronto Maple Leafs not only neglected to enhance their roster during this year’s trade deadline, despite having considerable flexibility with numerous one-year or expiring contracts, but they also opted for a rather unconventional approach with the decisions they made.
The Leafs possess goaltending that falls below the league average and one of the NHL’s weakest defensive lines.
However, they opted not to tackle either issue. Their success largely hinges on having the league’s premier forwards, allowing them to remain competitive and nearly claim the title of the NHL’s highest-scoring team. With goaltending that meets the league average, they excel as a top-tier team.
Conversely, without this level of goaltending, their performance suffers significantly, resulting in a brutal outcome.
It’s logical to assume that since this season falls within Auston Matthews’ prime years, and considering that players like Tavares and Rielly may not maintain their peak performance levels for much longer, the Leafs should have pursued a more aggressive approach.
By trading off assets like the injury-prone TJ Brodie and the underperforming Ilya Samsonov, they could have freed up $8 million in cap space. Surprisingly, they refrained from trading their first-round draft pick or any of their top prospects.
Brad Treliving had the resources, motivation, and opportunity to execute a significant trade, yet inexplicably chose not to take action.
Instead, the Leafs added a couple of subpar defensemen to the roster. As evidenced in the review of the Ilya Lyubushkin trade, while Lyubushkin has delivered satisfactory performances so far, there are signs that his presence may be more detrimental than beneficial to the team.
The situation is even more pronounced for Joel Edmundson. Put bluntly, his performance is subpar, and the Leafs would be wise to keep him off the ice. (All statistics sourced from naturalstattrick.com).
This trade made by the Toronto Maple Leafs has been a complete failure.
Before delving into the analysis, it’s important to note that Joel Edmundson has only participated in seven games thus far, rendering his sample size quite limited. Additionally, among the statistics we’ll examine, goals for and against are the least reliable for predictive purposes.
This is due to the rarity of goals as statistical occurrences, requiring a significant amount of time to establish a reliable sample size. Moreover, goals are heavily influenced by goaltender performance, which, contrary to intuition, has minimal long-term correlation with defensive play. Therefore, simply winning minutes doesn’t necessarily indicate effective play.
Edmundson’s on-ice save percentage of 98% significantly distorts his statistical profile. Even the most exceptional defensive player in peak form couldn’t consistently achieve a 98% save percentage over any period of time. Consequently, despite the Leafs currently winning by a significant margin when Edmundson is on the ice, it’s imperative to disregard this statistic, as all other metrics suggest this trend will not persist.
Although the Leafs have a 6-1 record when Edmundson plays, the sustainability of this success is questionable. If such dominance were expected to continue, I would readily commend Edmundson as the primary catalyst for the Leafs’ impending playoff success.
This is due to the rarity of goals as statistical occurrences, requiring a significant amount of time to establish a reliable sample size. Moreover, goals are heavily influenced by goaltender performance, which, contrary to intuition, has minimal long-term correlation with defensive play. Therefore, simply winning minutes doesn’t necessarily indicate effective play.
Edmundson’s on-ice save percentage of 98% significantly distorts his statistical profile. Even the most exceptional defensive player in peak form couldn’t consistently achieve a 98% save percentage over any period of time. Consequently, despite the Leafs currently winning by a significant margin when Edmundson is on the ice, it’s imperative to disregard this statistic, as all other metrics suggest this trend will not persist.
Although the Leafs have a 6-1 record when Edmundson plays, the sustainability of this success is questionable. If such dominance were expected to continue, I would readily commend Edmundson as the primary catalyst for the Leafs’ impending playoff success.
That statistic is highly unfavorable.
Moreover, these figures closely mirror Joel Edmundson’s performance during his time in Washington, where eventually his ice time diminished. Interestingly, throughout his career, his teams have only won their minutes over a full season when he has received goaltending performance above 92%, a factor beyond his control and one that cannot be relied upon consistently from the Leafs’ goaltenders.
The evidence is clear: Joel Edmundson is a physically imposing player who presents challenges for opponents. However, his presence alone does not translate into success for his team. In fact, he ranks among the least effective and poorest-performing players in the NHL.
Acquiring him through a trade was a misguided and unwise decision. It reflects poor management by the Toronto Maple Leafs, indicating a lack of direction and competence within the organization. It would be beneficial for everyone if the front office underwent significant restructuring sooner rather than later.