As recently as 2022, the notion of a player challenging the long-abandoned 100-stolen base mark seemed as improbable as humans walking on Jupiter (the planet, not the Spring Training site in Florida).
However, the extraordinary talent of Elly De La Cruz didn’t emerge in the Majors until 2023.
Now, more than a quarter into the season, the electrifying Reds shortstop is on track to become the fifth player in the Modern Era (since 1900), and the first since the Cardinals’ Vince Coleman in 1987, to steal 100 or more bases. With 30 steals, De La Cruz holds a double-digit lead across MLB, outrunning more than half of MLB teams single-handedly. While his unique skill set isn’t the only factor contributing to this potential milestone (more on that shortly), De La Cruz may very well be the player who rises to this historic occasion.
Much of the season still lies ahead, presenting numerous challenges for the 22-year-old phenom. But witnessing De La Cruz dominate a game—like his four-hit, four-steal performance Thursday night at Dodger Stadium—makes the prospect of him becoming MLB’s next, long-awaited, triple-digit base thief seem quite realistic.
Setting the stage
Before diving into the details, let’s recap the journey to this point.
From 2018-22, no player managed even a 50-steal season. Things hit a low in 2022 when the Marlins’ Jon Berti was the only MLB player to steal more than 35 bases, ending with 41. This was the lowest MLB-leading total in a full season since Luis Aparicio and Maury Wills both swiped 40 bags in 1963. The sport’s strategies had moved away from risky base stealing.
Then, two major changes occurred. First, MLB introduced new rules for the 2023 season, including a pitch timer and limits on pitcher “disengagements” (such as pickoff attempts and step-offs), making it easier for runners to steal.
Second, a wave of young, ultra-athletic players began to capitalize on these changes. Steals increased significantly, with six players stealing 40 or more bases—the most since 2013—all under the age of 26. Led by the Braves’ Ronald Acuña Jr. (73), the A’s Esteury Ruiz (67), and the D-backs’ Corbin Carroll (54), MLB saw its first 50- and 60-base stealers since 2017 and its first 70-base stealer since 2009.
Other milestones remained untouched, however. Nobody has stolen 80 bases since 1988, when Vince Coleman (81) and the Yankees’ Rickey Henderson (93) both achieved it. One year earlier, Coleman stole 109 bases for St. Louis, marking the eighth triple-digit stolen base season of MLB’s Modern Era (since 1900) — and, to date, the last.
It remains to be seen if the dynamic De La Cruz will have that kind of career. However, right now, he is the top threat to join the list of 100-steal seasons, with 30 steals in the Reds’ first 47 games through Sunday—a 103-steal pace over 162 games.
